How can I do almost anything from my phone, yet most people still drive to offices that haven’t changed in decades? We have super intelligent models that can code better than most engineers yet, drug discovery takes decades, total factor productivity hasnt grown since the 1970s, and our power grid runs on software older than me. Somewhere along the way we ended up serving the software that was supposed to serve us. Where's my flying car?
In each year since 2021, I've found the economic output per token generated increases by an order of magnitude with each new modality—seq2seq, GPT-2, ChatGPT, deep research.
AGI diffusion is the bottleneck to what we actually want: intelligence that works beyond the screen, diffused across the real economy where the problems that matter live. This may require significant capital and model training, but it certainly will happen with far fewer people who deliver insanely outsized impact. Once done, the question will not be whether an abundant future arrives, but why it was delayed at all.